Evaluating Resource Adequacy Impacts on Energy Market Prices Across Wind and Solar Penetration Levels

Date Published: October 2019

Authors: Bethany Frew, Gord Stephen, Devon Sigler, Jessica Lau, Wesley B. Jones, Aaron Bloom

This paper assesses the impact of system resource adequacy on market prices using the Reliability Test System-Grid Modernization Lab Consortium database. A probabilistic resource adequacy model, a capacity expansion model and a production cost model are used to evaluate prices at various resource adequacy levels and variable renewable energy penetration levels. The result suggests that prices can be significantly underestimated on both average and standard deviation bases. It also highlights the importance of scarcity pricing assumptions on the price outputs from operational models.

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